Asteroid Impact Risk 2025 Forecast. On february 18, the impact probability of asteroid 2024 yr4 hitting earth in late 2032 reached the highest ever documented by nasa for an object of its size or larger: Experts expect the risk percentage to fluctuate before likely dropping to zero.

The relative scarcity of data points lies behind the fluctuating risk assessment, which, until yesterday, had pegged the asteroid’s probability of impact at 2.6 percent. The chances of asteroid 2024 yr4 colliding with earth in 2032 hit a record high.